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How can the Government improve its chances to successfully implement structural reforms?
Thursday, 13 May 2010
Motto: "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." (Albert Einstein)
 

A half-measures policy

The latest mission of the IMF delegation to Bucharest seems to have finally sliced through the issue of the Government's attitude towards the anti-crisis measures. More than one year ago there were talks about a "safety belt". Now there are talks about extreme austerity measures required to avoid Romania's default. Faltering policies, the way in which Government members handled - as a group or individually -  public communication, decisions that seemed minor, but had a negative impact in the media - they all have given the impression that the economy and the public policies are two separate issues and that things can correct themselves: that public sectors may continue to survive without too much changes and that companies will gradually return to growth because their businesses have already been adjusted well enough.

But evidence shows that things are far from matching this description and that they cannot remain the same. On the one hand, reducing public expenditure was not sufficient and, on the other hand, sustaining the purchasing power by paying public employees' wages and social pensions through domestic and foreign loans contracted by the Government did not stimulate consumption, as it has been hoped - explicitly or not. Public investments have been sacrificed, private investments collapsed and official unemployment has exceeded 8%. In short, public policies didn’t prove their effectiveness when and where they were needed.
 
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Are we in or out of the recession after the revision of the macroeconomic statistics?
Friday, 12 March 2010
In order to maintain a steady course to their destination, seafarers use the sun by day and the stars by night. The main advantage – or providential gift – of these celestial marks is that their position doesn’t change – although, on an astronomical scale, they move too. For political decision makers and analysts, the statistical indicators are part – or should be part – of the “navigational kit” that helps them find their way amid the waves of economical and social policies. But, in the words of a Danish official, “statistics is not as exact a science as the public or the media assume, but it has to serve as a beacon of light in the information jungle.” He went on saying that “the economical success of a nation and democracy itself depend on the availability of precise and high quality information.”

What is the connection between these and Romania’s coming out of the recession? Allow us to explain.
 
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